On Energy Assessments
While the first part of this web page highlights the percarious energy position we are in, the second part offers some practical directions that we should follow.
In researching energy on the Internet, I've come across several excellent videos, speeches, and graphics related to our energy situation. I'd like to share them with you. The first is an overview very clearly given in a speech by Admiral Hyman Rickover, father of our Nuclear Navy. His speech can be read by clicking here.
Roughly a year earlier, M. King Hubbard, a Research Geologist for Shell Oil Company, published a scientific paper entitled: "Nuclear Energy and Fossil Fuel" (Ref: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf). This paper was the culmination of Hubbard's studies on depletion in oil fields and with other non renewable resources. This led him to a simple hypothesis that basically said: "When a field is half empty of its proven reserves, the field is at peak production." This is know as Hubbert's Peak and also referred to as Peak Oil [production]. Peak Oil is that point at which a country, region, or the World reaches peak oil production and will **never** see such high a levels of production ever again. It is sometimes referred to as the point where demand can no longer be satisfied by supply.
This is further explained in one to the finest presentation I have seen on Peak Oil. It was delivered by Conservative Republican Dr. Roscoe Bartlett of Maryland to Congress. His presentation was captured electronically from a CSPAN broadcast and is available from: http://www.energybulletin.net/5080.html. The CSPAN logo partially covers over his graphics **but** they had been available by clicking the PDF transcript hotlink on that page. The PDF link appears to be dead.
A good complimentary book is Hubbert's Peak by Ken Deffeyes. It's a folksy walk through the oil patches of Deffeyes' life with reflections that help explain Hubbert's Peak to the non technical reader. For a semi-technical book, it's not dry.
Hubbert's claim to fame is that he predicted in 1956, that the US would reach peak production in the early 1970's. We did in December of 1970. Even with the 13 billion barrel potential of Pruhoe Bay oil coming through the Alaskan Pipeline a couple of years later, that oil was **not** enough to create a second peak. The Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) proven reserves are estimated to be about 1/3 that of the Pruhoe Bay find.
Hubbert also predicted that the world would reach peak production in the early 2000's. The Arab Oil Embargo and the Iranian Revolution Containment caused us to conserve -- for awhile. Recent graphs show that world oil production is plateauing. Is this just another plateau or is this the time window in which we will see World Peak Oil Production? Other types of unconventional sources are not likely to help.
For instance, the Tar Sands of Canada projects are large natural gas users, drawing on supplies from already peaked(?) North American natural gas reserves (graphic-slide11, graphic2). The Colorado Oil Shale Projects are nowhere near being economically feasible. We have to look elsewhere for our energy needs including conservation, renewables, and alternative fuels.
Where do we look? Our first goal should be to make sure that we are ahead of the curve where demand outstrips supply. In other words, we need to adopt conservation, generate renewable supplies, and utilitize alternative fuels if we are to transition successfully from the Fossil Fuel age.
What do we have available? Dr Nate Lewis of CalTech obtained the amount of prime energy of Oil, Gas, and Coal we consume and then studied all the possible alternative fuels to see how they stacked up as replacements. He goes strictly by the numbers. His Presentation is "The Future of Power and Energy" is about an hour long.
The other good news is that there has been good progress in solar cell development. Here is an article that describes some of that progress: http://www.trnmag.com/Stories/2004/051904/Solar_crystals_get_2-for-1_051904.html. While I wouldn't want lead-selenium cells on my roof in case of fire, I would gladly place them in my yard. Also, progress is being made with CIGS solar cells. Efficiencies in the 40 to 50% range are expected in the near future.
But where do you store the electrical energy? First, you have to think of Lithium Ion batteries as a family of battery types. You have types that are like "fiery steeds" and others that are more like Shetland Ponies. Recent advances in battery technology are creating battery systems that will allow vehicles such as the Tesla and the Phoenix SUT to travel upwards of 250 miles on a charge. These same types of batteries could be used to store electrical energy from the sun. With 15,000 useful cycles acheived in the laboratory, a pack of Altair Nanosafe batteries could conceivably be used for 50 years in a PV storage system (15,000 cycle/300cycles/year = ~50 years. Note: This calculation assumes less use in the Spring and Fall.).
In Summary, natural resources such as oil, gas and coal deplete. Without them, the products, services, foods, transportation and other amenities that have we have taken for granted will disappear unless we realize this and start to embrace conservation, and develop and use renewable alternatives. The sooner we start, the "better off we will be." /s Peter Eckhoff, December 3, 2006
Here is some additional information:
Here are some graphs that help explain the high price of oil:
http://www.theoildrum.com/storyonly/2006/3/1/3402/63420
One of the things to note is that the National Geographic Society published an article entitled: "The End of Cheap Oil" in their June 2004 issue. There are graphs on page 91 which show rectangles of crude oil "proven reserves". Think of these squares as the size of the "oil tank". The size does not tell you how much is left. Only how much was there before the first well was drilled. In the case of Saudi Arabia, the amount is 261,000 million barrels or 261 billion barrels. This is an inflated number. By going back to the Oil Drum link above, you can see that the OPEC "proven reserves" jumped by factors of 2 to 3 in the mid 1980's without finding a single drop of new oil. The inflation comes from the fact that OPEC decided to base their quotas on proven reserves. Almost overnight, each OPEC member raised their proven reserves so each member could sell more oil than the other member. The realistic number for Saudi Arabia is around 160 GB of oil instead of 261 GB. This is the country with so much supposed excess capacity that they can open up the tap and prices will come down.
Where is the price of oil today? Where are we to get "our" oil from tomorrow? The World Petroleum Concil is talking about drilling in the Artic, Antartic, and UltraDeep parts of the Oceans. One area is northeast of Greenland with spring icebergs and 120 foot seas in winter. If we do get oil and/or gas from that area, it will be very expensive.
Normally a battery is considered dead once its capacity drops below 80% of its original capacity. After reaching this point, battery capacity begins to fall sharply. The makes the average useful recharged capacity roughly 90% or a factor of 0.9. A 100-mile pack with a 2,000 cycle life batteries produces 200,000 miles times 0.9 or roughly an EV that can be driven 180,000 miles per pack. Currently, a set of commonly availabe 18650 Lithium Ion batteries can be procured for roughly $9K. This works out to be about $0.05/mile ($9,000/180,000miles) and you don't have to pay for oil changes, timing belts, spark plugs, oil filters, and other costs associated with keeping an Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) maintained. So in driving 30 miles, depreciation on such a pack would be $1.50. Electrical usage, including the equivalent of the gasoline tax on a gallon of gasoline would be about $1.10 for a total of $2.60 minus about $1.00 for ICE maintenance for a total of around $1.60. We will have to see what the lithium based battery companies will be charging for their new technologies.
All in all, as demand for oil increases and producers are having a hard time bringing new supply to market, it is up to you, me, and the rest of the world to find ways to make up the difference. Plug In Hybrids fueled by biofuels and renewables such as wind and solar cells are one way. Purchasing or converting a car to an EV that is fueled by a set of solar cells makes a lot of sense. Both can be done and there are people who are proving it.
Here are some other suggested URLs that can help put things into perspective:
Here is a link to signs of Peak Oil from an economic perspective:
http://www.eande.tv/main/?date=111005
Dr. Alber Bartlett talks about the growth and relates it to oil production and consumption. This is an easy to understand talk but it gives great insight into what is happening.
http://edison.ncssm.edu/programs/colloquia/bartlett.ram
Matthew Simmons is a multi-billion dollar Investment Banker to the Energy Industry. To his credit, he studied the Society of Petroleum Engineers technical papers on the Saudi Arabian oil fields and wrote what he found in a book called "Twilight in the Desert". It's an excellent read. His presentations can be found here:
